Arriva Business Case

Project background

Arriva have the responsibility for a 15 year integrated franchise to operate rail services throughout Wales and the border counties of England. The franchise provides interurban, rural and commuter passenger rail services. At the time of franchise award there was an aspiration to provide a first class service on certain routes within the franchise, however, it was not clear whether these routes had a sustainable business case.

The client

Arriva Trains Wales (ATW) are part of the Arriva plc group, a leading bus and rail group comprising many transport businesses and services in the UK and in Europe.

Our role

Strategic Lines and associate Schoenemann Design were invited by ATW to develop and test a high level initial business case for the introduction of a Premier Class service on selected routes.

Scope of services

  • To define the premier product offering and options including the fleet size and route options for conversion to Premier Class
  • To establish the profit/loss impact expected over the remaining life of the franchise, against Arriva return criteria and to support cash flow /subsidy implications
  • To review the practical impact of introduction on current operations in respect of fleet, staff, maintenance and crowding levels
  • To run sensitivity tests on the model

Team/Partners

Strategic Lines worked with Schoenemann Design who carried out interior design work on the vehicles and developed capital cost estimates. Two associates provided financial modeling and operational impact assessments.TAS Partnerships were employed as sub consultants for the demand and revenue modeling.

Key dates

  • Franchise start date 2003
  • Initial business case study: May to July 2006

Successes

  • Study completed on time and to budget
  • Results used by ATW Board in discussions with the Welsh Assembly Government

Challenges

  • Establishing the initial ‘product’ against which to create the base case
  • Diversity and dispersed nature of routes with long travel times
  • Differing types of rolling stock fleets

Tools used/Approach

  • Financial model
  • Demand and revenue model

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